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Textile And Garment Industry: Two Of Export And Domestic Sales

2011/11/14 10:23:00 18

The slowdown in export growth and the slowdown in domestic demand are in line with our expectations:

Exit

The growth rate of textile and garment retail will slow down: domestic demand is affected by inflation, product demand will be suppressed, and macroeconomic growth will slow down. The growth rate of domestic textile and garment retail will maintain slow growth and decline in the long term. The export data lag behind the real reaction of the real economy: the impact of the surge in cotton prices before March will increase the export unit price and raise the price to suppress overseas demand, but the impact of "price increase" will be enough to offset the effect of "reduction". 6, July, the export volume of our textile and garment exports has reached a record high, but the order of the real economy has deteriorated gradually, and the demand for real textile products has deteriorated gradually. In addition, the demand for textile and garment exports has been deteriorating, and the value of textile and clothing exports has declined by 6.5%, 5.4%, 14.5% in the same month. High and low: we have been thinking this year that exports are affected by the economic downturn in Europe and America and the sharp rise and fall of raw materials, which will present a situation of high and low prices. Since June, we believe that the domestic market is at a low level.

We expect exports to continue in the future.

deteriorate

And initially estimated that exports will start in March next year, that is, tradition.

Busy season

It is possible to get better when it comes; inflation inhibits domestic demand:

(1) affected by the upward pressure of costs such as raw materials, manpower and logistics, the retail enterprises have increased the price significantly since this year, thus inhibiting the terminal demand.

In the first three quarters of 2011, the sales performance of hundreds of major retail enterprises in China increased by 25.65%, up by 0.25 from the same period last year, and the retail sales increased by 5.4% compared with the same period last year (6.94 percentage points lower than the same period last year).

(2) next year, with the low price of raw materials such as cotton prices, the growth of textile and clothing sales is expected to pick up, so as to realize the pformation of volume and price. Taking into account that the negative impact of high price on consumers' consumption will gradually weaken, we expect that the growth rate of consumption in 2012 is likely to show a slow recovery trend. Manufacturing export enterprises should still wait and see in the near future: manufacturing enterprises are not optimistic about the export form in the four quarter, coupled with the excessive expansion of pre production capacity, and the industry's deep integration should be cautious.

The brand retail enterprises will split up and have strong defense capabilities: in the trend of slow growth and slowing down of domestic consumption, the listed brand retail enterprises have strong competitive advantages, especially the white horse stocks with good quality, and the probability of future performance growth will be greater.