Market Price Trajectory Of Domestic Fur Market In May

How can we describe the current fur market?

Insiders say clearly.

It should be said that there is a steelyard in the heart of the farm. It can also weigh the market.

The overall market situation of the fur market is poor circulation and low price.

There are different varieties of skin.

Fox fur has fallen below 300 yuan / Zhang Daguan since January 2007, so far, the price has been hovering at 200-300 yuan / Zhang Zhijian, and the paction is light.

After the fall of the raccoon dog in spring 2007, the current price is running at a low level. The raccoon skin (cooked board) is only 150-170 yuan / Zhang in the market, compared with 400 yuan per year last year.

The price of mink skin is also not optimistic. Last year's mink skin was 400 yuan / above, and the female mink was 120-150 yuan / Zhang. Now the mink skin is 190-195 yuan / Zhang, the female mink is 80-95 yuan / Zhang, and the paction is not smooth.

The reasons for the current fur market are various.

There are both international and internal factors in the international market.

Two. Fox, raccoon and marten market price track.

The market price of fox fur has not exceeded 300 yuan / Zhang Daguan since January when it fell below 300 yuan / Zhang in 2007.

The market price at present is 250-270 yuan / Zhang (more than 20 catties), until there is no sign of price rebound.

Since the fall of this spring, raccoon dog skin is almost a thousand miles away.

Up to now, the price is 140-150 yuan / Zhang.

The price of raccoon skin dropped by 2 / 3, and the price is less than 1 / 3 of last year.

Mink prices fell by half compared with the same period last year.

From the above analysis, we can see that the three carriages of fur market entered into a trough in almost the same period in 2007.

This phenomenon has never appeared in the fur market in the past twenty years or has been similar, but it has never been so obvious this year.

The appearance of this phenomenon is accidental or inevitable; it is believed that the industry is benevolent and the wise are wise.

Three. Segmenting the market, analyzing the market, looking at the market and grasping the trend.

The fur market is very complicated.

As a whole, it is a multitude of things. There are many varieties in its varieties. From the perspective of factors affecting the market, it has many and many uncertainties.

Then, how should we know it and understand it and get closer to it?

One of the most important methods is "cutting the market".

The so-called "cutting market" is to effectively divide the fur market.

For example, the fur market can be divided into fox fur market, raccoon skin market, mink market and so on.

This is a segmentation method.

Then the market segmentation is analyzed.

Again, take time as a dividing line, for example, "spring market". "Autumn market". "Winter market".

One of the advantages of market segmentation is to simplify the market level and make it easier to analyze clearly and understand the market.

Further subdivision can be carried out to the "fox skin spring market".

Cutting is for analysis and research. We have analyzed the market. Research efforts should be beneficial to our fur sales.

Looking at the market, the trend is to analyze and locate the fur market from the macro interface.

The purpose of fur market is to grasp the price trend of fur.

Looking at the market can also be regarded as a distant market.

Sometimes the observations in it do not know the true colors of the market.

Just like "do not know the true colors of Mount Lu, only in the mountains."

To really see Mount Lu, we sometimes need to retreat two or three miles to recognize its true colors.

This is also applied to the judgement of the market.

Sometimes, it is a comprehensive market that extracts guidance from it. Sometimes it comes from the historical trend of development and the law of price changes in the past few years.

Such research needs more in-depth study by the fur and leather industry.

Four. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the "inflection point" of fur market prices.

Many friends of the fur industry have consulted the author about the price trend of fur in 2008.

It is difficult for the author to give a clear answer.

Because the fur market is a complex, fresh, unpredictable, dynamic, and changing system. It is not easy for people to have an absolutely clear definition of the market in a particular period.

Only by analyzing the historical changes in the fur market can we draw the trend of its development and change.

Mimicking the term of stock market is called "inflection point" to discover the abrupt change of price.

At present, it has entered the second year of the sharp fall in fur prices, and it was third years from 2008 to 2009.

We are more optimistic that the inflection point of fur market will begin after new year's day in 2009.

But this "inflection point" is the first to appear on which species (Fox, raccoon, and mink), but it is not yet certain.

Or even more prudent projections, should it be in 2010 after new year's day?

In short, the fur market has entered a low price period. The rebound in prices is only a matter of time. This is not only the hope of the aquaculture industry, but also the inevitability of the market.

What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for the inflection point of the fur market?

I think the first condition is time.

This is self-evident.

The fur market must take the price of time to exchange room for price rise.

The second sufficient condition is that the reasonable adjustment of aquaculture structure is in place.

I do not know what the industry colleagues think about this latter condition.

The author thinks so: this time, the overall decline of the fur market price, besides the social, domestic and international factors of climate, there must be some deep reasons inside the aquaculture circles.

I think there are some factors here:

1. the breed is single and the structure is uniform.

2. the aquaculture industry is not guided by the market. It is blind and optimistic in the high tide of the market.

3. varieties improvement. Quality has not formed the due quality benefit advantage.

Good quality skins. Good breeds of animals do not reflect their proper value and price.

4. new superior varieties. Excellent varieties have not been fully promoted. Development will form tomorrow's leading industry.

Five. At this stage, it is the preparation period for the next prosperous period of fur market.

Everything will last long, but it will last long.

The fur market will not last for a long time at a price.

The lowdown of the fur market may be the necessary adjustment for the coming of the next boom.

From this level, our colleagues in the aquaculture industry should make full use of the current period to make a comprehensive reflection on the breeding, management, production and technology of our breeding industry, find out the problems and symptoms of the industry, find out the ways to solve the problems, and find out the direction and outlet of the industry.

Six. From the fierce price fluctuations in the fur market, the experience and lessons learned from the aquaculture industry should be drawn.

Since 2007, the fierce price fluctuations in the fur market reflect the fragile position of aquaculture in the fur market, as well as the chaotic management of the aquaculture industry and the disorderly competition in the industry.

When the fur market is in a strong position, the industry is fighting for a single timber bridge, and whether the market is able to bear it or not. When the fur market is in a weak position, the industry will go off in a hubbub and let go of the animals and animals.

How can the industry without self-discipline be long? Healthy and orderly development.

This is also one of the internal causes of price fluctuations in the fur market.

Seven. Although the "risk" is in demand, the fur market with a relatively stable price is beneficial to the aquaculture industry.

We hope to be effective. We pray for the long and steady development of the fur industry. This is our wish.

But good intentions need our efforts to achieve them.

Healthy, stable and prosperous fur market is what our aquaculture industry hopes.

But such a market will not happen automatically.

Aquaculture as the source of fur industry, its industry self-discipline has an important impact on the development of the market.

On the contrary, the degree of price fluctuation in fur market has played a great role in promoting or stabilizing the development of aquaculture industry.

Eight. Fur industry health. Long-term development road.

The healthy and long-term development of fur industry is a profound, extensive and dignified topic. We need to participate in the joint research of all sectors of the society.

In this case, I would like to talk about some of my ideas and experiences, so as to make some suggestions and consult with colleagues in the industry.