The World'S Largest Trading Currency Argument: Lack Of Investor Confidence
The world's most widely traded currency pairs also happen to be the "most boring" currency pairs: the euro / dollar has been hovering near the long-run average (around 1.11) since last November.
Even though the US dollar has fallen by 3.1% against the main rival currencies in the past 3 months, the US dollar has only depreciated to 1.1% against the euro, the smallest.
The volatility of the US dollar against the euro also dropped to its lowest level since September 2014, which shows the lack of investor confidence.
Analysts say the deadlock reflects the lack of clarity among central banks.
Policy path
。
From quantitative easing (QE) to interest rate differentiation, monetary policy self
financial crisis
It has always been the dominant factor in the foreign exchange market.
Under the FED's unexpected implication that the pace of interest rate hikes will be slowed down and the negative interest rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) has been setbacks, traders' confidence has been compromised, and there is doubt about whether the government's ability to stimulate economic growth and inflation has reached its limit.
On Thursday (May 12th), the euro / dollar slipped 0.4%, at 1.1377 in late New York.
Volatility fell to 7.1% in one month, the lowest level since October 2014.
according to
Bank for International Settlements
(BIS) the euro / US trading volume accounts for 24% of all foreign exchange pactions. It is the most popular paction in the world's largest financial market, the foreign exchange market.
The Deutsche Bank AG lowered its US dollar estimate on the end of March, predicting that the euro / dollar will rise to 1.05. It was expected that 0.90. interest rate futures indicated that the probability of raising interest rates by the end of the Federal Reserve was only 50%, which was further down compared with 54% at the end of March.
The lack of a clear trend has prompted some US dollar leaders to "surrender their hands".
The expected median value of the strategist surveyed by Bloomberg shows that the euro / dollar value is 1.11 at the end of this year, compared with 1.05. at the beginning of the year.
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