Italy Textile Fashion Industry'S Growth Forecast Is Expected To Decrease

By the collapse of the Russian market, China

The growth of Italy's textile and fashion industry is expected to be reduced due to the slowdown and the sluggish economic recovery in Europe.

Italy fashion system (SMI) said that the forecast made in June is not unprudent but not optimistic, because no one could predict economic and geopolitical changes at that time.

2015

The textile fashion industry's revenue will reach 52 billion 639 million euros, slightly higher than that of 52 billion 66 million euros in 2014.

Among them, exports of 29 billion euros, an increase of 1.9% over the same period.

Because of the increase in imports, though

An increase of 8.5%, but the growth rate decreased by 6.9% over the same period last year.

The outlook for the textile fashion industry is good in 2016. The first quarter revenue growth should be 2.2%, two times the GDP growth of Italy in the same period.

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At present, the quality and output of high-quality cotton produced by the domestic market has been reduced by 28 or more. As of now, 28-32mm accounts for only 73.96% of the total cotton in the new cotton market. The C2 level accounts for 38.53% of the total, compared with 86.37% and 14.68% last year.

Due to industrial upgrading and product mix adjustment, mainstream textile products are becoming more and more popular in combing. The demand for quality cotton is increasing and the sale of inferior cotton is narrowed.

In addition, as the quota of cotton imports continued to limit 894 thousand tons, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices continued to shrink. As of last Friday, the price difference between the CCI index 3128B and the FCI index M class 1% tariff was only 1329 yuan / ton, and the advantage of foreign cotton prices declined.

Therefore, the domestic limited high-quality cotton is used in the production of high yield and better varieties, inferior cotton supply exceeds demand, and the cotton demand differentiation is obvious.

Taking polyester staple as an example, its price trend has been significantly affected by the drop in international crude oil prices. The price of polyester staple fiber has fallen below the 2008 low point and continues to be explored. The pure polyester yarn stock pressure has increased, and price promotions are widespread. The price difference between cotton and polyester has risen from 5400 yuan / ton in early May to the current 6600 yuan / ton. Polyester staple fiber has increased the substitution of cotton, and blended yarn has become the choice of textile enterprises.

In addition, the fast fashion clothing brand is favored by consumers. Compared with the traditional slow fashion apparel, the proportion of chemical fiber material in the fabric is very high, which is also one of the reasons for the shrinking of cotton consumption.

Imported yarn has explode since 2012, and jumped from 903 thousand tons in 2011 to 1 million 526 thousand tons in 2012. In 2015 1 to November, the number of imported yarn has reached a record high of 2 million 159 thousand tons.

The price advantage of imported yarn on the one hand is low labor cost from raw material cotton and textile enterprises, on the other hand, it benefits from the currency depreciation of exporting countries.

In the future, the depreciation of RMB is a great probability. As the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is further narrowed, the cost of imported yarn raw materials will decrease, but the labor cost of Southeast Asian textile enterprises will be significantly lower than that of China in the long run.

At the same time, the composition of imported yarn exported to China is changing. The proportion of combed yarn in imported yarn has been increasing. In 2015, the proportion of combed yarn has remained above 20%. Similarly, the proportion of 30-47 combed yarn in imported combed yarn is also increasing, especially in 30-47 of the combed yarn exported to China in India. The proportion is 67%.

It can be speculated that the imported yarn will further encroach on the market share of high count combed yarn in China, and the situation that imported yarn has fully occupied the domestic yarn market has come quietly.