Optimistic About The Prospects Of The US Consumer Industry, But The Situation Is Not Good.

According to top US fund managers and analysts, consumers' purchasing power is still strong under the condition of low economic growth, which may make consumption field a good place for investment in 2016, but the clothing industry is still in the doldrums and is suffering from high inventory.

"The attitude of the consumer is: I will continue to spend money, I will spend it when I am happy, and I will spend it when I feel depressed," said Yair Dei Ni, President of Yardeni Research (Ed Yardeni).

"The world once again becomes very dependent on American consumers."

Participants in the Reuters global investment outlook summit said unemployment, wage increases, low oil prices, low import prices and relatively low interest rates would encourage consumers to spend more in 2016.

And a series of disappointing retail business reports are striking.

Meanwhile, the US government report hinted at slowing spending, which worries some investors.

But the participants at the summit said that the change in consumption habits was one of the reasons for the impact of the garment industry, which has not been affected by other enterprises.

Mario Gabelli, Gabelli & Co, an investment company, said: "my question is very simple: why do we not buy clothes? Is it weather factors? Or tourism? O'Reilly and other retailers are good, and retailers such as Home Depot also perform well."

O'Reilly Automotive is one of Gabelli's most promising companies, even though its share price has more than doubled since early 2014.

O'Reilly has more than 4400 auto parts retail outlets.

Gabelli said he also focused on "changing".

For example, people now read labels more carefully.

So he holds a stake in General Mills, a Cheerios cereal food producer, and holds Yoplait Yogurt shares. He recently bought shares of organic macaroni and cheese maker Annie's Inc.

Investors, such as Gap, Messi stores and Nordstrom, have been disappointed by investors' earnings or earnings this month.

The S & P retail pick index fell by 18% from mid July to mid November, which is generally far higher than the constituent stocks.

"I do not think that these retailers are worse off than expected due to weak consumption, because other industries are obviously benefited," Maki noted.

In addition, the Reuters summit guests also mentioned that

Confidence is still strong, according to data from the University of Michigan, this year's consumer confidence index Ceng Pan has reached a high level since 2004.

At the moment, Fed officials hinted in this month's speech that it may be the first time that interest rates have been raised in the past 10 years.

In the minutes of last meeting, the Fed suggested that if we still believe that the job market is steady, wages will grow and inflation can rise to the Fed's goal, then it will be possible to raise interest rates in December.

Dean Maki, chief economic analyst of Point72 Asset Management company under the command of billionaire Steven A. Cohen, pointed out that consumer spending rose by 3.2% in the third quarter, increasing by more than inflation.

"This is what happens when gasoline prices fall: the overall inflation rate declines and the real expenditure accelerates growth," Maki said. "Consumer spending continues to be the main driving force for economic expansion."

Margie Patel, senior investment manager of Wells Capital Management, expects salary growth to be 1.5 percentage points higher than inflation in 2016.

The company manages assets of $348 billion.

Patel said that wage growth would encourage consumers to increase online shopping expenses and help online retailers such as Home Depot, a home repair retailer, expand their online sales.

She also likes car sales.

The annual sales rate of General Motors and other car companies may exceed 17 million 350 thousand in 2000.

"There is still a few years ahead of the auto sales cycle," Patel said. "This is one of the best real-time indicators to show the true state of consumers."