Delagi And Yellen'S Monetary Policy In December Could Not Be Avoided.

The last day of 2015 is only two months left.

The Federal Reserve and the ECB, which Yellen and Delagi respectively hold, are likely to make some monetary policy decisions by the end of the year.

The key factor is the euro's exchange rate with the US dollar.

Bloomberg said that some economists came to the conclusion after talking to Delagi (Mario Draghi) last night.

Delagi made all the promises, but he did not say whether he would launch a new round of stimulus in December.

For investors, the reason why the market needs high attention in December is that the Federal Reserve is likely to announce the first rate hike since December.

If the above two major central banks really make the key decisions, people may see interesting picture: either the two super economies on both sides of the Atlantic are going to split up, or they continue to go along with them and expand the loose monetary policy.

In the next few weeks, the euro / dollar trend is a key factor for investors to try to measure these two outcomes, Bloomberg said.

The euro suggested in Delagi's speech on Thursday that it might launch.

After that, it fell to its lowest level in two months.

"The monetary game between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is going to continue for a little longer."

Nick Kounis, head of the macro research department of ABN Amro Bank NV bank, Holland, said.

After the Federal Reserve announced its decision to temporarily raise interest rates in September, the US dollar was lower than the euro, which increased the cost of European exports and imports more cheaply, thereby threatening the inflation outlook.

Based on this, Delagi said the ECB is even considering launching a more liberal monetary policy at the next meeting in December 3rd.

The last meeting of the Fed this year was held in December 15th and 16th.

Delagi 23, said the recent appreciation of the euro, so that inflation is facing downside risks.

Be vigilant against inflation, prepare to act when necessary, and adjust all tools if necessary.

If it is expected to deteriorate, the ECB will have to adjust QE.

The European Central Bank discussed reducing deposit rates.

Dirk Schumacher said that once the euro zone's economic activity showed signs of a sharp slowdown, the ECB would be more likely to raise the monthly debt purchase amount on the basis of the existing debt purchase plan.

He insisted that the European Central Bank will announce the extension of the original purchase plan for September 2016 due in September 2016 at the December meeting.

Earlier, the Paris bank and Deutsche Bank assumed that the basic scenario of the December meeting of the European Central Bank was to adjust the quantitative easing policy and to reduce the deposit interest rate.

If Delagi announces that he will continue to expand QE, the euro will go down and the dollar will rise. The currency appreciation may affect the decision of the Federal Reserve.

The ECB sends signals to the US dollar.

The rise has made the financial environment tighter in the US, which has lowered the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Krishna Guha, vice president of Evercore ISI, said.

On the contrary, if the global stock market continues to rise due to the actions of the European Central Bank,

Raising interest rates will release "smoke bombs", said Steve Barrow, head of G10 strategy division in standard bank in London.

That is to say, the two major central banks may lead the world into a new era of divergence in monetary policy.

Market expectations may also affect the decisions of the ECB.

Goldman Sachs economist Dirk Schumacher believes that if the Federal Reserve's December interest rate hike continues to cool and the euro stabilizes or rises again, the European Central Bank will be forced to cut interest rates to -0.5%, which is the basic scenario assumption. If the market expectations of the Fed raise interest rates again in December and lead to weaker euro, the pressure of the European Central Bank to cut interest rates will be reduced.