Hebei Lu Yu Market: Strong Smell Of New Year

Inland banks in recent days

Prices continue to weaken, the 3128 level price is more than 14000 yuan / ton, the real estate cotton still maintains 13000 yuan / ton price; the short-term price of polyester staple fiber fluctuates slightly; the average monthly settlement price in Hebei area is 7350 yuan / ton; the viscose staple fiber market has many low price rumors, and the negotiation center has dropped even though the price is low.

In recent years, they are in a state of continuous decline, but the downstream orders are insufficient.

The lack of willingness will lead to a sluggish sales of raw materials market, and there will be no breakthroughs in procurement before the year.

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Short term higher than expected market price paction does not mean that the market is good, and India's domestic textile mills have better digestion capacity. The paction may only have India textile mills in the "test the water", of course, also related to the recent dollar appreciation of the rupee.

The author believes that the impact of CCI throwing on China's cotton market is relatively limited, and the pressure on the ICE disk has gradually been digested and diluted. The reasons are as follows:

First, the impact of CCI dumping on global cotton supply is relatively large, but the impact on spot prices of ICE and high-grade cotton is relatively limited.

首先,从近几日CCI抛储的货源来看,因纤维长度达到31mm、棉花品级比较高,而前期印度国内高等级新花的上市量并不大,且马值、强力和回潮比较大,纺C40S及以上高支纱有难度,因此纱厂短暂高价竞拍高等级国储棉过渡并不为奇;其次,截止1月15日2014/15年度美棉的签约出口量已接近90%,可供出口和选择的SM级及以上美棉已寥寥无几,而可以用来代替交割的澳棉更是“一票难求”,机采的巴西棉又以中低品级为主,后市ICE不排除仓单过低而被多头或资金逼仓的可能,ICE哪来的下跌动力?再次,澳大利亚及南美棉花种植面积大幅下滑已成定局(据测算,2015/16年澳棉产量将下滑至40多万吨,同比下滑50%以上),而美国、中国以及印度棉花种植面积也将快速减少,北半球减种或达到15%-20%,因此即使印度CCI国储棉全部抛储,成交也无法弥补植面积下滑带来的产量损失。

Two, China, India and other countries, the focus of cotton procurement is high grade lint, low grade cotton market capacity gradually atrophy, CCI country store low grade cotton or will "filming".

考虑到1100多万吨国储和2014/15年度国内产量650万吨左右,加上经济增速全面放缓的情况下棉花消费下滑的趋势更加明显,中国政府严控配额发放、促进国棉消化的决心非常大,89.4万吨1%关税内棉花进口配额将被棉企用在“刀刃”上来采购无“三丝”高等级美棉、SM级及以上西非棉、中亚棉,留给印度棉的空间非常有限,因为中国有庞大的国储棉和地产棉做后盾,而印度国内产业升级、结构转型也跃上新阶段,低支纱、低档纱、低利润棉纱市场已经逐渐主弃,让给其它东南亚国家或孟加拉国、非洲等国家,C32S及以上支数高配普梳、精梳纱的供应比例大幅提高,对棉花的消费需求调高至高品级印度棉、美棉、中亚棉或西非棉,特别是无三丝机采棉大受欢迎,另外,印度2014/15年度仍实行“籽棉最低收购保护价”,给籽棉、皮棉价格托底,因此有关部门认为如果CCI抛储定价偏低,将对2015年的新棉

The direct impact on the cotton mill and cotton growers is a shock. It is unlikely that the government will take such a big risk.

Three, a large number of India quilts will be pushed into the international market and occupy the cotton market share of Africa, Central Asia and Pakistan. The price will also be matched to the middle and low grade cotton, and the difference between the high and low grade cotton will be enlarged. Just like January, the price difference between SM grade cotton and India cotton S-6 SM will reach 20 cents / pound respectively.

According to some foreign businessmen and institutions, the India government's "one year and one clean" state treasury operation is expected to be out of CCI cotton inventory by October, while the Chinese market can only be used to digest India cotton or save CCI. The price advantage has become the only pass that can enter the Chinese market. Therefore, 40% full tariff import has been put on the table.

Since late January, the price of domestic cotton manufacturers has been priced at 12500-12800 yuan / ton, or 40% tariff. The price of India cotton CIF is 56-58 cents / pound. At present, the price of S-6 cotton mill in India is 63 cents / pound, and the price of CIF is 68-69 cents / pound. If India cotton is not subject to the quota of China's import quota, the price of CIF should be reduced by 10 cents or pounds at least, but it will be reduced to 10 cents per pound for new cotton in 2014/15. It is "natural disaster" and unbearable. The India government and cotton enterprises will find a balance between export and national stock.