2015 Forecast: China'S Textile And Apparel Industry Cost Pressures To Ease Competition Pattern Stable

Since 2014, the domestic consumption demand of textile and apparel industry has been under pressure. The growth rate of external demand has declined under the influence of the high base. The demand side of the industry has maintained a weak growth. The decline of the cotton price at the end of cost has certain support for the industry profitability, but it is still affected by the unfavorable factors such as the large domestic and foreign cotton prices and the rising labor costs. The industry basically maintained stable operation in the early stage.

In 2015, under the expected growth rate of household disposable income, the growth rate of domestic demand is still under a slight pressure.

The foundation is still unstable, and export growth will continue to maintain weak growth.

On the supply side, the new capacity of the industry will be controllable in the future, but the scale of clothing inventory is large, and the downstream garment industry is still facing greater pressure to go inventory.

In terms of competition, China's textile industry will remain the leading export competitiveness in the short term. However, under the background of the global capacity layout shifting to emerging markets, the market share will be under pressure, while the competition in the garment industry will further intensify under the impact of e-commerce and foreign brands.

In terms of cost, under the influence of high inventory, ease of supply and policy changes, the main raw material cotton prices are expected to fall, which has certain support to alleviate the cost pressure of the industry; the apparel industry, the overall cost of industry channel will continue to show an upward trend in the short term.

In terms of finance, the income and profit growth of textile and garment industry in 2015 will be further reduced.

The price of raw materials such as cotton will have a certain support for the profitability of the textile industry, and the profit margins of the brand clothing industry will be under pressure under the influence of high channel costs, large inventory pressure and electricity supplier shocks.

In terms of debt burden and debt repayment indicators, the overall debt burden of the industry is not heavy at this stage, and is expected to be maintained in the short term.

The implementation of economic policy.

The domestic demand market will enhance the pulling effect of the domestic textile industry. At the same time, the further recovery of the global economy will bring new opportunities for China's home textile industry.

This means that household textiles will continue to be one of the new growth points in the development of China's textile industry.

Over the past ten years, the gross output value of China's home textile industry has been growing at an average annual rate of nearly 20%.. With the improvement of living standards and the acceleration of urbanization, we believe that the home textile industry will maintain a relatively fast development in the context of expanding consumer consumption and upgrading consumption, and the leading industries will have double opportunities to expand the market share and increase share.

Textile since 2014

Domestic consumption demand in the industry has been under a slight pressure. The growth rate of external demand has declined under the influence of the high base of the previous period. The demand side of the industry has maintained a weak growth. The drop in cotton price at the cost end has certain support for the industry's profitability, but it is still affected by the unfavorable factors such as the large domestic and foreign cotton price and the rising labor cost.

In 2015, under the expected growth rate of household disposable income, the growth rate of domestic demand is still under a slight pressure; and the foundation for recovery of external demand is still not stable, and the growth rate of industrial exports will continue to maintain weak growth.

On the supply side, the new capacity of the industry will be controllable in the future, but the scale of clothing inventory is large, and the downstream garment industry is still facing greater pressure to go inventory.

In terms of competition, China's textile industry will remain the leading export competitiveness in the short term. However, under the background of the global capacity layout shifting to emerging markets, the market share will be under pressure, while the competition in the garment industry will further intensify under the impact of e-commerce and foreign brands.

In terms of cost, under the influence of high inventory, ease of supply and policy changes, the main raw material cotton prices are expected to fall, which has certain support to alleviate the cost pressure of the industry; the apparel industry, the overall cost of industry channel will continue to show an upward trend in the short term.

In terms of finance, the income and profit growth of textile and garment industry in 2015 will be further reduced.

The price of raw materials such as cotton will have a certain support for the profitability of the textile industry, and the profit margins of the brand clothing industry will be under pressure under the influence of high channel costs, large inventory pressure and electricity supplier shocks.

In terms of debt burden and debt repayment indicators, the overall debt burden of the industry is not heavy at this stage, and is expected to be maintained in the short term.

In terms of credit quality differentiation, the textile industry maintained weak growth in 2015.

Under the background of falling expectations, there are differences in the risk of enterprise earnings fluctuating between different inventory turnover efficiency, while the garment industry is still under the influence of weak domestic demand, and the pressure of "going stock" is still relatively large.

Overall, the growth rate of industry demand in 2015 is under a slight pressure. The pressure of supply side is relatively controllable, the competition pattern is relatively stable, the industry boom is basically maintained, and the credit quality has not changed materially.

China's debt creditworthiness maintains the "bad" evaluation of the credit quality of the textile and garment industry, and the industry outlook remains stable.