Guo Shiliang: What Mysterious Force Is Pushing Up The Stock Market?

At present, Shanghai and Hong Kong is considered to be a direct driving force to stimulate the stock market to rise. However, the author believes that while the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges are accelerating, there are still many forces that directly or indirectly affect the stock market's trend.

First, the low valuation of the stock market has been excavated in the market, in which the Shanghai strong and deep weak pattern also confirms this view.

According to statistics, the average price earnings ratio of the two cities is about 14 times, and the corresponding circulation market value is about 24 trillion. Among them, the average price earnings ratio of Shanghai stock market is 10.32 times, and the average price earnings ratio of Shenzhen stock market is 20.3 times. In addition, the average price earnings ratio of the small and medium sized board and the growth enterprise market is 38 times and 67 times respectively.

On the basis of the above data, the undervalued advantage of Shanghai stock market is more obvious. Obviously, in Shanghai and Hong Kong through "open to traffic" strong expectations, Shanghai stock market earnings level is closer to the Hong Kong stock market. At this point, large capital institutions are more inclined to the layout of blue chips in Shanghai stock market.

According to historical data, from May 2013 to May 2014, the social security fund did not open an account in the A share market for 13 consecutive months, but in the past two months, it ran into the market. By the end of 7 this year, there were 262 A share accounts in the social security fund.

Secondly, financing The scale of margin trading has increased rapidly. In the era of high leverage, it also boosted the strong stock market.

Data show that the current scale of financing by leverage has reached 700 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, and the scale of the two financial institutions was only about 340000000000.

financing Margin trading In essence, it has a double-sided effect. Among them, equity market When the market continues to warm up, margin trading tools will play a role in boosting the stock market and activating the funds. This has also brought positive impact on the stock market. However, after the expansion of the two financial expansion, it will have a fatal impact on the market, and investors must make corresponding risk control.

Third, investment in real estate, trust products and other funds in the early stage has returned to the stock market, bringing new liquidity to the stock market.

The new real estate policy can not fundamentally reverse the downward trend of the real estate market. At the same time, under the background of the rigid payment being broken, the trust products and so on are gradually exposing their own risks because of the expected decline of the government's bottom up. Therefore, when the attraction of many investment channels is declining, the stock market will undoubtedly become a concern for such funds.

It is worth mentioning that, at present, A shares have effectively broken through the long-term decline channel since August 2009, and successfully hit a new high for many months. In this regard, the next step will be to attack the 2478 high points and 2500 points of February 27, 2012.