Xu Bin: The Possibility Of A Comprehensive Reduction Of Interest Rates Sharply Increased

Pessimists sent to Zhongnanhai for a meeting.

Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee

Premier Li Keqiang hosted a symposium in Zhongnanhai on the afternoon of 3, and together with experts, scholars and business leaders in charge of "the current economic situation", and in-depth discussions and exchanges on the next step of economic development and macroeconomic policies.

Li Keqiang said that to build an upgraded version of China's economy, we should increase our efforts to support new formats and new industries. We should also strive to tap the potential and open up wasteland in traditional industries, so as to cultivate and develop "dual engines" for economic growth.

It was learned that the economists and entrepreneurs who spoke at the meeting were in the following order: Professor Zhou Qiren, National Development Research Institute of Peking University, Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and securities, Renmin University of China, and Mizuho Securities.

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Haitong Securities, Li Xunlei, chairman of ZOOMLION Limited by Share Ltd, Zhan Chunxin, chairman of Luo Feng, China Merchants Bank, Limited by Share Ltd chairman Li Jianhong, chief executive officer of Jingdong group, Liu Qiangdong.

Among the eight speakers yesterday, the top four were economists.

Combing the forecast reports of domestic and foreign financial institutions, it can be found that most of the organizations believe that it is more difficult for China to complete the annual GDP7.5% growth target, but the forecast value is above 7%, which is the "reasonable space" defined by the government. The attention of cautious pessimists in this forum has further strengthened the market's anticipation for the follow-up stimulus policy.

For example, Shen Jianguang and Li Xunlei have always been representatives of more stimulus policies on the market.

In an exclusive interview recently, Shen Jianguang said that we should push ahead with reform in the context of steady economic growth, instead of forcing reforms under the circumstances of economic downturn. In the latter case, the economic risk is greater and undesirable.

Similar to Shen Jianguang, Li Xunlei is also pessimistic about the current economic situation. He told reporters in an exclusive interview that the current directional easing partly replaced the fiscal policy, which was not sustainable in the long run. For adjusting the economic structure, the more effective way was fiscal stimulus.

Narrator: housework must be noticed: leaders must sincerely listen to anyone and anyone's opinion. They will not beat drums and drums to let the public know what to invite.

Don't laugh. It's political skill. No one can't be a master.

Zhou Qiren came, needless to say, in the final analysis of the Chinese economy, the most important reform of the property rights system was to engage in marketization.

This is the main program of Li Keqiang economics.

Why are the other pessimists coming? The reform is painful, so we have to take some morphine anaesthesia, otherwise it will be very sad.

Are you upset? Yes, the three quarter of the small and medium-sized enterprises is still very sad.

With the advance of interest rate liberalization, the development of Internet finance has raised the deposit cost of banks, resulting in a decline in net interest spread among many banks.

But by comparing the net interest margin of the three quarterly reports of 16 listed banks in 2014, the reporter found that the net interest spread of 9 banks in 16 listed banks is still rising compared with September 2013 data.

"Banks earn profits through structural adjustment and loan interest rates."

The insider told reporters.

Previously, the largest quality asset of a bank was derived from state-owned enterprises with higher credit rating. However, the loan interest rate in this area is low. The high interest rate of loans is small and medium-sized enterprises. In recent years, large state-owned enterprises often obtain funds through other direct financing tools, while banks only have to take the advantage of the trend, and the scale of loans has shifted from state-owned enterprises to small and medium-sized enterprises, so as to raise interest rates.

But the result is that interest rates on SMEs and even all loans must be raised to ensure a higher net interest margin and profit margin.

"Lending rates for SMEs are still floating at least 30%~50%.

Banks are too interested in raising the interest rate of loans and deposits, and as an indicator, it is difficult to implement the policy of reducing the financing cost of enterprises as a whole.

An insider, who didn't want to be named, said.

Narrator: banks can't be blamed. The loan to deposit ratio is as high as 75%, and the reserve ratio is as high as 19%.

Especially in the context of real estate recession, covertly raising the lending rate of small and medium-sized enterprises in disguise, in fact, raising the risk premium is a matter of business, not intentional and big leadership.

But the bond market has its own spectrum.

The market expects the bond market to keep going.

Looking back in October, in the context of the central bank successively introduced the lowering of the repo rate and the directional easing policy for the SLF operation of joint stock banks, the bond market yield continued to descend sharply.

As of October 31st, the yields of the 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 year key period fixed rate treasury bonds were 3.36%, 3.44%, 3.56%, 3.73% and 3.76%, respectively, which were lower than those of the 21-38BP at the end of the month of the month. The bond yields of the key period countries were different from those of the 34-52BP at the end of the month.

Even though the bond market in October has recorded a big increase, the mainstream institutions here generally believe that directional easing will continue to exert force in the context of the continued weakness in the real economy in the short term.