The Short Term Outlook For The US Cotton Market Remains Unchanged.

ICE cotton Futures - there are no noteworthy changes in the market this week. Cotton futures were flat in about a month, and prices fluctuated around 78.50 cents.

Speculators had not shown any interest in bulls and shorts since they gave up their large positions in late August and October. It may be necessary for the market to climb up to 82-86 cents in a convincing way to stimulate speculative speculative buying. On the other hand, the market seems to be skeptical. In the near future, speculators will be more inclined to bear short prices.

Overall, the short-term outlook for the market has hardly changed. If the price falls to 75 cents -72 cents, then it comes from China. Spin The factory's good support will emerge, and China textile mill will import cotton with interest of 40%. On the other hand, if the market rises to 82-86 cents, there will be strong resistance to cotton production. Therefore, if there is no significant interference from the external market, there is no obvious speculator's different actions, and there is no unexpected major change in the fundamentals at present, there will be no major and lasting changes in the market in the short run from the current price level and trading mode.

Technical aspects: the short-term prospects are neutral, the resistance level is 79.50-80.50 cents, and the support level is 77.50-76.50 cents. The medium-term outlook is bearish, but there is a considerable possibility of a correction of the opposite trend. If the closing price is higher, or the value created is higher than 84 cents, the bearish outlook is invalid.

　　 U.S.A - picking weather improved in Delta and southeastern regions, and growers returning to cotton fields to continue picking cotton. The work of the ginning work continued without being affected by untimely weather, because the yard of the ginning factory was stacked with many large bags of cotton that had already been laid. The yield per unit area is affected by the changeable weather environment of cotton growth and harvest period, resulting in many differences in the output of producers. Surprisingly, cotton quality is very good, maintaining the trend of the past few years, this generation of manufacturers has adopted excellent crop management methods, so the quality is improving. Growers also use crop rotation in cotton fields, which is also an important factor in average yield per unit area and quality improvement.

China, after a brief consolidation last week, prices continued to rise from the lows of 18310 (14 year May contract) in mid November. The market is in a short-term upward trend, and the next target area is 18 '830-18' 870 yuan. Recent trends support the current bullish mode at 18 '610 and 18' 500 yuan. The long-term outlook remains neutral, provided that the price does not exceed the high point of 19000 yuan in mid October.

This week China's import business has no characteristics, with the cheapest. Imported The price is slightly higher than these levels, so it is possible to import cotton with a 40% tariff. The result of reserve sales is impressive. This week's settlement rate is consistently higher than 50% (Monday is 67%), although it is the most expensive upland cotton in the world. Textile companies need cash, and they have no other real choice but to buy cotton from reserve institutions. The proportion of imported cotton in 2011 was 12% and 14% respectively. At present, reserve institutions are still the largest and most important participants in the market. The storage and storage of reserve cotton reached a total of slightly more than 3 million 300 thousand tons as of yesterday, compared with 3 million 500 thousand tons in the same period last year. Therefore, the speed of catching up is impressive.