Market Demand Is Low, Textile Industry Export Prospects Are Not Optimistic.

< p > strong > 1, the international market demand is low, and export prospects are not optimistic. < /strong > /p >

The export has declined significantly since the beginning of this year, and the recent data have stabilized. However, it is still in a low position. The emerging market can not replace the status of the European and American countries. The developed countries such as a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > economy < /a > recovery is weak, the unemployment rate remains high, consumer confidence is frustrated, and the demand has a significant negative impact. It is estimated that the euro area will continue to slow down or zero growth next year. The textile and garment industry is facing insufficient demand and competitive pressure will be more prominent, and the export situation is hard to say optimistic. P

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"P > < strong > 2, the pattern of cotton price hanging upside down is still not improved < /strong > /p >

< p > the continuous expansion of cotton price difference at home and abroad is an important factor affecting the operation of the industry in 2012. The difference between domestic and foreign a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > widened the international competitiveness of the textile industry.

Although the Federal Reserve continues to release liquidity, commodity market strength is favorable for futures prices, but the real economy and downstream consumption level have limited capacity to face cotton prices.

While the domestic spot cotton price has been supported, it has also contributed to the import of large quantities of cotton and foreign yarn, and has restrained the demand for domestic cotton.

Although the terminal textile industry has improved slightly in recent years, the overall demand for textile products is difficult to expand, which does not support the rise in cotton prices from the weakness of the Canton Fair and the decline in sales of domestic a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > clothing < /a >.

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< p > < strong > 3, the textile manufacturing industry is still exploring the bottom process < /strong > < /p >.

< p > the main factor of short-term industry economic recovery is mainly due to the base effect and the effect of replenishment by commercial enterprises. At present, there is still no specific way to solve the problem of cotton price at home and abroad. Clothing is the largest terminal industry in the whole industry. If the garment industry lacks momentum, it will be very difficult for the industry to recover.

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< p > < strong > 4, brand clothing is disturbed by inventory < /strong > < /p >

< p > clothing sales increased by only 2.4% this year. Retail enterprises increased sales promotion in October to increase passenger flow and drive sales growth.

The growth rate of revenue and net profit of key companies decreased. The growth of outdoors clothing and high-end men's clothing < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > women's wear > /a > exceeded that of the industry, while the growth of casual wear, middle and low men's wear and women's shoes was lower than that of subdivision industries, and the storage turnover rate of the industry had declined, reflecting the rise of stock pressure.

Under the environment of declining economic growth and sluggish consumption, the clothing industry has been obviously impacted, and the inventory problem has become a tremendous pressure.

Domestic brands have repeatedly increased their prices, but the market acceptance has not improved. The decline in operating capacity is likely to drag down profits.

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< p > < strong > 5, industry investment strategy < /strong > < /p >

The opportunity for textile manufacturing companies is not obvious. Subdividing brand clothing is the focus of attention. P

The new government emphasizes the stimulating effect of consumption on economic growth. The promotion of the reform of income distribution system and the gradual improvement of social security are the policy factors to stimulate consumption growth. The potential demand of residents' consumption is huge. Especially in the 234 line market, policy factors are likely to activate this part of consumption potential, and suggest that we should pay attention to the opportunities of outdoor sports brand and high-end men's clothing.

Pathfinder: in the next 3-5 years, the industry will continue to grow at a high level. The leading enterprises will have greater advantages. The traditional sporting goods industry has reached the ceiling of growth, and the switch of professionals and distribution channels to the outdoor industry will be a trend.

We emphasize the brand selling points and technology selling points of outdoor products. Along with the accumulation of the Pathfinder and the introduction of talents, the gap is narrowing. This year, the brand operation is more mature and the market share has a trend of improvement. It is estimated that in 2013, EPS will be 0.73 yuan and PE is 21 times, giving the rating of "recommended _A".

Card slave Road: sales network coverage has begun to take shape, and share high-end retail property with international brands. Cooperation with international brands has enhanced the management and operation capabilities of stores.

At present, there is no absolute strong local brand in the high-end men's business dress and business casual market. It is optimistic that the company will maintain a high pace of expansion through the opportunity of listing, and its market share and reputation will be enhanced. The 2012-2013 year growth rate is expected to be 55% and 39%, EPS is 1.7 and 2.37 yuan, the target price is 47 yuan, and the investment rating of "strongly recommend _A" is given.

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