Cotton Gradually Moves Closer To The Purchase And Storage Price

Although the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is huge, Textile enterprises Export is difficult, but considering that the domestic purchase and storage plan will be launched at the beginning of September, the main contract 1301 of Zheng Mian will continue to oscillate upward, and finally move closer to the purchase and storage price of 20400 yuan/ton. However, the purchase and storage policy cannot change the pattern of high global cotton stocks. In the long run, the cotton market will face severe challenges after the end of the purchase and storage period on March 31, 2013.

　　 1301 contract will close to the deposit price

According to the policy plan, the Chinese government will start the collection and storage plan when new cotton comes into the market in September. The purchase and storage price is 20400 yuan per ton, and the quantity is not limited. The relevant departments will pay close attention to the relationship between China Cotton Association and Clothing materials The price of cotton in the national cotton market was monitored. When the average monitored price was lower than 20400 yuan/ton for five consecutive working days from September 1, the purchase and storage of cotton was started. This is similar to the collection and storage situation in 2011. It is clear in the plan that in case of heavy rain and other disasters, the storage range can be expanded to Grade 5 cotton after the research of relevant departments. Therefore, according to the current situation, the collection and storage work is likely to start on September 8.

The current contract price of Zheng Mian 1301 is far lower than Collection and storage price As the time window approaches, it is a high probability event for cotton prices to move up. As the collection and storage time is up to March 31, 1301 contract is relatively strong during this period, while 1305 contract will be weak due to lack of collection and storage support.

　　 Global cotton surplus is serious

At present, the global cotton surplus is serious, and there is no sign of improvement. This is repression cotton The main factor of price. The US Department of Agriculture's August global supply and demand report forecast that the global cotton output in 2012/2013 was 24.844 million tons, an increase of 64000 tons compared with July; The consumption was 23.548 million tons, down 179000 tons from July; The global ending inventory was 16.257 million tons, an increase of 495000 tons compared with July, and 1.496 million tons compared with 2011/2012, an increase of 10%. Therefore, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio is expected to be 69.04% next year, higher than 64.33% this year.

On the domestic side, Textile enterprises New orders are few, cotton consumption is slow, and procurement demand is weak. According to the survey results of China Cotton Information Network, in July, the cotton industrial inventory of China's large-scale textile enterprises was 741300 tons, and the commercial inventory of cotton enterprises was 1470000 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory was only 242300 tons less than that in June, indicating that textile enterprises consumed cotton slowly. Because the total industrial and commercial inventory in July of the same period last year was 457500 tons less than that in June.

From the export situation, China's textile and clothing exports are facing a rare severe situation in recent years. As the domestic cotton price is far higher than the international cotton price, the raw material cost of cotton textile enterprises is high, and the difficult export situation will continue.

　　 Serious backlog of imported cotton

August, inside and outside Cotton price The difference narrowed compared with the end of July. If this price difference can continue to narrow in the future, it will be conducive to the rise of domestic cotton prices. However, a large amount of imported cotton is overstocked in the warehouse. With the listing of new cotton in September and the serious shortage of capital flow, some import enterprises cannot even issue letters of credit or accept letters of credit for foreign cotton that subsequently arrives in Hong Kong according to the contract. In this case, enterprises that do not carry out futures hedging bear a greater risk.

In order to cooperate with the storage plan in September, the management may maintain a tight quota policy. However, in the later stage of storage, the management should consider how to solve the problem of cotton backlog to prevent it from forming a new impact on the cotton market.