Forward Looking And First Quarter Strategy For Textile And Garment Industry: Good Brand Clothing

Focus of Spring Festival last December and 2012 retail Enterprise clothing sales growth rebounded significantly, for ease of brand Clothing brand Terminal sales pressure has a positive effect. In December 2011, the volume and volume of clothing retail sales of all the major retail enterprises in the country were outstanding. Speed up Both picked up.

Retail sales grew by 22.75% over the same period last year, and retail sales increased by 6.59% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, during the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2012, the sales volume of clothing sales of hundreds of key retailers in China also increased by 22.5% over the same period last year. We believe that the rise of terminal sales in December and January can partly ease the terminal of clothing brands. Sale The pressure will not be too pessimistic for the key companies in the upcoming 2012 3/4 autumn winter ordering.

In the fourth quarter of 2011, the organization reduced the textile and garment sector to a certain extent, but the performance growth was relatively clear or undervalued. According to the institutional shareholdings of Wind information statistics, the fourth quarter of 2011 carried out a certain degree of reduction in the textile and garment sector key companies. The molecular industry looks at the end of 2011. Hold positions A lot of sub industries include business casual, men's wear, home textiles and outdoor. Most of the subsidiary industries are fashion leisure and export manufacturing. According to the key companies, the company with the highest share of the company's total share capital has Shanghai Jahwa (600315), seven wolf (002029), Luo Lai home textile (002293), wedding bird (002154), Hinur (002485), Meng Jie home textiles (002397) and Pathfinder (300005). It is worth noting that in the general situation of plate reduction, fourth quarter Shanghai Jahwa (600315), YOUNGOR (600177) and Hinur (002485) have gained a certain amount of additional positions, reflecting the preference of some institutions to underestimate the value or steady growth of blue chips in the current market environment.

　　我们对于重点覆盖公司2011年的年报业绩预测如下:(1)增幅50%以上的有:探路者(87%)、搜于特(002503)(70%)、朗姿股份(002612)(70%)、富安娜(002327)(60~65%)、美邦服饰(002269)(60%)和罗莱家纺(50~55%)(2)增幅在30%——50%之间的有:七匹狼(45%)、九牧王(601566)(40~45%)、报喜鸟(40~45%)、瑞贝卡(600439)(40~50%)，梦洁家纺(35~40%)、希努尔(34%)和上海家化(30~35%)(3)增幅在0——30%之间的有:森马服饰(002563)(23%)、鲁泰A(000726)(20~23%)和嘉麟杰(002486)(15~20%)(4)业绩下降的有:大杨创世(600233)(-14%)、星期六(002291)(-10~0%)和伟星股份(002003)(-20~-10%)。

Investment strategy: looking forward to the whole year of 2012, we still optimistic about the brand clothing plate, mainly recommend seven wolves, nine Mu Wang, Shanghai Jahwa, Luo Lai home textile, fuanna, Pathfinder, wedding bird and the stock of long Zi. Most of the brand clothing listed companies are expected to earn a profit of at least 25% to 30% in 2012, and the annual return on investment is expected to exceed 20%. For the first quarter of 2012, we expect that the industry's relative market will be difficult to achieve. After March, the trend of the industry sector largely depends on the results of the 2012 autumn and winter ordering of key Brand Company 3/4. In the first quarter, apart from recommending all the year round promising varieties (seven wolves, nine herd kings, Pathfinder, etc.), we also suggested that YOUNGOR's (not rating) and Lu Tai A should be paid close attention to the very limited valuation space and obvious cash dividends.

Risk factors: mainstream Brand Company 2012 autumn and winter orders will be significantly lower than Expect 。