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There Is No Magic Bullet In Chinese Stock Market.

2011/9/28 15:16:00 23

A Panacea For China'S Stock Market

China equity market There seems to be another moment of concern. On the Internet and in forums, there are people gossiping about the stock market's dissatisfaction, and there are experts from various sectors pointing out the prescriptions for regulatory ills. However, the disease in China's stock market is not a day's success, nor is it caused by unilateral reasons. It is not a cure for drugs.


Since the middle of April, China's A shares have been stumbling. Not only did there not be a systemic rebound in expectation, but the Shanghai composite index was getting lower and lower, and even hit a new low in the past two years. The long slump has greatly damaged investor confidence and stock market turnover. "The lack of funds in China's stock market is never money, but confidence" is once again confirmed.


In micro-blog, people express their reluctantly to the stock market through songs of small shareholders and various kinds of doggerel. It is believed that oversupply has led to a fall in share prices. Regulators can not sit idly by in the stock market downturn. New shares Issuance should slow down.


Despite the global comparison, China's economy is still growing steadily, or even "thriving". However, the "inflation free bull market" of a few laws determines that A shares are difficult to turn over, and that the high sensitivity of funds makes the stock market follow the trend of monetary policy. Since last year, the liquidity tightening policy and the inflation situation have been the two bricks in the minds of investors.


Fluctuations in overseas markets are also important factors. The Japanese earthquake, the gloomy US economy and the worsening European debt problem made A shares, which were not synchronized with the international market, also been dragged down or even joined the world. Plunge The troops.


Looking back on this year's A share market, it can be divided into three stages. At the beginning of the year, the A share market brought about a wave of cyclical stock market because of the relatively loose liquidity and the growth of large cap stocks. After mid April, monetary policy continued to be overweight, leading to a tight social mobility and a mild decline in the economic boom. In August, the US Treasury bond rating was downgraded, and the European debt crisis broke out again. Investors were worried about the economic downturn and the continued tightening of policy. A shares continued to decline.


People invest in the stock market. The macro situation at home and abroad is very uncertain, and investors are naturally cautious in entering the market. However, the lack of attractive A shares has not stopped the pace of IPO. Since the beginning of this year, IPOs have been maintaining nearly ten per week for a long time. The number of new shares and the amount of financing are the highest in the world.


Experts believe that on the one hand, there are few new funds to enter the market. On the one hand, the expansion of the stock market is continuous, and the decline in share prices is natural. But this does not mean that we should "rescue the market" by controlling the rhythm of IPO.


First of all, the reform of the IPO system in China's stock market has been advancing in the direction of marketization, and the invisible force of the government should be weaker and weaker. Whether issuing price or issuing time should be determined by the market. Second, historical experience shows that suspending or slowing down the issuance of new shares may temporarily raise the stock market, but it is not effective. In the context of macro policy unchanged, investors' funds will withdraw from the stock market, even if there is no expansion of new shares, the share price will still fall. At present, China's stock market is on the road of semi market operation.


Both investors and regulators should understand that there is no "magic bullet" in China's stock market and the stock index should not be a regulatory indicator. In the stock market downturn, we should reflect on the institutional level to seek perfection.


At present, the delisting system is nominal, stock issuance is slow to launch, long-term capital market barriers remain, bond market short legs need to be made up, and listed companies emerge in an endless stream. In the construction of these basic systems, we hope that regulators can lay down their burden and investors can understand and work together to push forward the Chinese stock market.
 

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