The Analysis Is Called &Nbsp To Avoid Falling Into Recession; Oil Prices Should Be Further Reduced.

If history can serve as guidance, another oil price trigger economy.

Historically, when oil costs relative to the proportion of economic output reached the present level, it usually presages economic depression.

And the current proportion of oil costs relative to economic output is still in spot oil.

Although economists and analysts say that a serious recession can still be avoided, most people add that this is a prerequisite for the decline of Shi and other energy prices and, more importantly, at a low level, otherwise the global economy will face serious problems.

Credit Agricole's global oil

This flickering warning signal is what economists call the so-called "oil expenditure index": that is, oil consumption accounts for the share of global gross domestic product (GDP) (oil price is multiplied by oil consumption divided by world GDP).

Since 1965, the share has been maintained at an average of 3%, with only three times exceeding 4.5%, namely, 1974, 1979 to 1985 and 2008.

During these three periods, a serious global recession occurred every time.

From 1973 to 1974, during the first oil crisis, the war between Arabia and Israel triggered the oil embargo in Arabia and led to soaring oil prices.

In 1979, the second oil crisis, after the Iran and Iraq war, the Iran revolution eliminated most of the oil output of the country.

In 2008, driven by the real estate bubble, speculative buying of new debt instruments and prosperity of commodity markets, oil prices surged to a record high of more than $147 a barrel for the first time in the barrel, triggering the most serious financial crisis since World War II in 2008.

This time, driven by political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, rapid economic growth in developing countries such as China and India, and oil losses up to 1 million 600 thousand barrels per day in Libya, oil prices surged.

Economists say that Brent's crude oil, which is an international benchmark, will need to drop to $90 a barrel to reduce the "oil expenditure target" to 4.5% level.