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Inflation Control Remains The Primary Goal Of Macroeconomic Regulation And Control

2011/7/15 10:17:00 43

Inflation Control: The Primary Goal Of Macroeconomic Regulation And Control

Event:

In July 13, 2011, the National Bureau of statistics released the 2 quarter macroeconomic data.

In the first half of this year, the GDP of 204459 billion yuan was calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 9.6% over the previous year, of which 9.7% in the first quarter and 9.5% in the two quarter.

In terms of industry,

Added value of primary industry

15700 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; the second industry added value of 102178 billion yuan, an increase of 11%; third industrial added value of 86581 billion yuan, an increase of 9.2%.

In the two quarter, the GDP grew by 2.2%.

Commentary:

In the 1 quarter and two quarter, the economic performance was better than expected. The three carriages' consumption, investment and export grew steadily, especially above the scale.

Industrial increase

The value-added growth rate exceeded expectations. In the two quarter, the overall policy is still tight, but the economic performance is better than expected. The reasons are: on the one hand, the shrinkage of demand is limited in the initial stage of inventory adjustment; on the other hand, although the overall policy is tight, the structure, especially local government investment and some heavy industry sectors, such as steel and chemical industry, still maintain high demand and production capacity.

2, macroeconomic regulation and control will still take inflation control as the primary goal. We should maintain the judgement of inflation falling quarterly.

In view of the high inflation pressure and relatively good economic performance, macroeconomic regulation and control will still be the primary objective of controlling inflation.

Although the industrial value added ratio is rising after the quarterly adjustment, the industrial output gap is continuing to fall. From this perspective, we think inflation pressure from the demand side will be further alleviated, especially in the context of the current global inflation global governance, we should maintain the judgement of quarterly inflation.

3, due to the high inflation pressure at present, it is estimated that

monetary policy

There will be no substantive relaxation. With the further adjustment of demand, we will see the emergence of monetary policy's expected relaxation.

4, concerned about the monthly growth rate of fixed asset investment and the decline of the ratio after the quarterly adjustment, it is estimated that the overall fixed asset investment growth will gradually decline in the future.

In June, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in a single month fell sharply, and the cumulative growth rate of fixed assets investment was relatively stable year-on-year, reflecting the positive side of fiscal policy.

From the quarter to quarter ratio, fixed assets grew by -1.04%, a sharp decline compared with May.

At the same time, the total investment growth of new projects in June continued to rise, but Dan Yuexin started to decline. This indicates that the overall fixed asset investment growth will gradually decline in the future.

5, maintain the annual economic growth rate of 9.5%.