Foreign Exchange Accounted For 2 Trillion &Nbsp In The First Half Of The Year, And The Pressure Of RMB Appreciation Was Not Reduced.

In the first half of this year, total foreign exchange increased to 20885 billion yuan, an increase of 62.8% over the same period last year.

In July 12th, the central bank released data showing 6 countries at the end of the month.

After breaking through the $3 trillion mark at the end of 3, the balance of the country's foreign exchange reserves approximated to US $3 trillion and 200 billion.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the trade surplus in the first half of this year is only 44 billion 937 million dollars, and the total amount of foreign investment actually utilized in the 1-5 months is 48 billion 28 million US dollars, assuming that FDI is about 10 billion dollars in June. There is still a big gap between the trade surplus in the first half of the year, the sum of FDI and the increase in foreign reserves.

It is roughly estimated that the gap is about $246 billion 900 million.

Fu Bingtao, deputy director of the macroeconomic and Financial Research Office of the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank of China, said, "is this about 200000000000 dollar all" hot money "? The answer is No.

There are two important factors that are not considered. One is the change of foreign exchange reserves in dollar denominated dollars caused by currency changes, and the other two is RMB trade settlement factors.

After excluding these two factors, the remaining insoluble part can be regarded as "hot money".

The 12 day data released by the central bank also showed that in June

Hot money or 54 billion 600 million dollars.

From the end of last year's 28473 billion dollars to 30447 billion dollars at the end of 3 this year, and then to 31975 billion dollars at the end of 6, the balance of foreign exchange reserves of the country has reached a new high.

At the same time, the trade surplus did not grow at the same time. In the first quarter, even the foreign trade deficit of US $1 billion 20 million was seen. The trade surplus in the first half of this year was only 44 billion 937 million US dollars, down 18.2% from the same period last year. Although FDI increased by 23.4% in the 1-5 months, the total scale was only 48 billion 28 million US dollars.

There is a big difference between the sum of the two items and the new foreign exchange reserves in the first half of the year.

"In addition to the US dollar, foreign exchange reserves include euro, yen and so on, and the share of euro and yen assets has been increasing in recent years.

For example, the first quarter foreign exchange reserves released by the safe haven't considered currency changes increased to 141 billion 200 million US dollars, far below the 197 billion 300 million US dollars announced by the central bank.

According to my own calculations, the foreign exchange reserves raised by US dollar in the first half of the year due to exchange rate changes were incrementally increased to US $107 billion.

Fu Bingtao said.

In addition to currency factors, the rapid development of cross-border trade since last year

According to the central bank's data, the calculation of RMB import trade in the first quarter of this year is about 285 billion 370 million yuan, or about 43 billion 400 million US dollars.

"This means that in the first quarter, the import trade of 43 billion 400 million US dollars was to purchase foreign exchange for imports, but because of the settlement in RMB, no foreign exchange purchase was equivalent to an increase of US $43 billion 400 million in foreign exchange reserves.

Simply assuming that the two quarter RMB settlement is still $43 billion 400 million, the foreign exchange reserve increased by US $about 86000000000 in the first half of the year.

Fu Bingtao said.

Together, these two factors increase foreign exchange reserves by about US $190 billion.

After excluding these factors, the insoluble part of the foreign exchange reserve in the first half of the year is that the "hot money" in the usual sense is only about 54 billion 600 million dollars.

Insiders said that the "hot money" inflow channels include capital settlement, foreign exchange settlement, counterfeit trade, service trade pfer, underground banks, and even private exit and entry.

Since last February, the agency has launched a special action to deal with and crack down on "hot money". In July 11th, third batch of 10 cases of foreign exchange violations and penalties were reported.

New foreign exchange accounted for more than 2 trillion yuan

Another aspect of the continued growth of foreign exchange reserves is the high foreign exchange rate, which continues to bring pressure to the central bank's basic currency.

Foreign exchange accounted for 501 billion 600 million yuan, 214 billion 500 million yuan, 407 billion 900 million yuan, 310 billion 700 million yuan, 376 billion 400 million yuan and 277 billion 300 million yuan respectively in 1-6 this year.

Despite fluctuating months, they remained above 200 billion yuan. In the first half of this year, the total foreign exchange increased to 20885 billion yuan, up 62.8% over the same period last year. This may also explain why the central bank held the six deposit reserve ratio in the first half of the year.

Capital inflow is the main reason for the rapid growth of foreign exchange.

In the first half of this year, foreign exchange holdings increased by more than 805 billion 700 million yuan from 12828 yuan in the same period last year. Considering that the trade surplus of goods in the first half of this year decreased by US $10 billion 300 million compared with the same period last year, the increase in foreign exchange mainly came from capital inflows and non merchandise trade items under current account.

The capital inflow pressure was higher in the first half of this year, which can also be reflected from the balance of payments data in the first quarter. "

CICC chief economist Peng Wensheng said.

He believes that because of the pressure of capital inflow, the renminbi still faces some pressure of appreciation. "We maintain the forecast of RMB's annual appreciation of 5%-7%".

However, Fu Bingtao pointed out that according to the foreign exchange and foreign trade surplus and FDI data roughly estimated, the "hot money" in June was about 10 billion 500 million dollars, down from 35 billion 700 million US dollars in May.

He believes that this does not necessarily mean a decrease in the "hot money" inflow, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in the expected appreciation of the renminbi since June, leading to changes in the import and export enterprises' behavior.

"In May, the NDF appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is expected to be about 2.2% in the year to 1.2% in June.

This may lead to an exportation of foreign exchange by exporters, and at the same time, foreign exporters will have lower willingness to accept renminbi, and the settlement of RMB imports will be reduced. Importers are forced to buy foreign exchange for imports.

In addition, the influx of hot money may be reduced.

As foreign exchange is mainly derived from the bank's foreign exchange settlement, these three reasons can basically explain the decline in the new foreign exchange reserve in June. "

He said.

As for the possible reduction of the "hot money" inflow, Fu Bingtao believes that it is affected by two factors: first, the recent surge of overseas institutions' "singing empty" China. Some funds temporarily leave China for risk aversion. Two, the US dollar rebounded after the expiration of QE2, and the yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, attracting some funds to return.