The &Nbsp Was Released Centrally, And The Major Adjustment Of Commodities Was "Repeated History".

At the end of April and early May, the bulk commodity The whole line suffered a setback. History repeats itself, and commodities in May 3, 2010 are also booming. Market adjustment And then fell at the end of May, and Shock The bottoms continued until the end of June.

Based on the analysis of the background, internal factors and possible future factors of the current commodity adjustment, combined with the adjustment of the continuous time period and the core influencing factors in the two quarter of 2010, the author expects that this round of adjustment will end earlier than expected and trigger a new round. Rise The intensity and duration of the offensive are stronger than in 2010.

Amazing history

Compared to last year and the two quarter of this year, the macro environment and monetary policy that led to turbulence in financial markets and commodity sell-off were found to be strikingly similar.

First of all, the two adjustment is in the world. Economics There are also similarities in the factors that triggered economic growth worries and the worries about the sharp increase in the recovery slowdown. The European debt crisis has always been "old tune up", and the US economic growth prospects have become another major negative commodity sell-off, and China's economic slowdown is the biggest loss of commodities.

Second, the monetary environment is very similar. In the two quarter of last year, due to the expiration of many stimulus measures in the developed economies of Europe and America, the loose monetary environment had a tendency to tighten. China took the lead in raising the deposit reserve ratio. In addition, emerging economies such as Vietnam, India and Brazil also began to raise interest rates, and the global monetary environment changed from extreme easing to moderate easing. This year, the global monetary tightening has become more pronounced. Emerging economies such as China have increased interest rates several times in succession, while the euro zone has entered a tight queue. The US dollar QE2 will also expire in June.

The current commodity adjustment will end earlier than last year.

By analyzing the factors of supply and demand, macro environment, monetary policy and liquidity of different commodities, we find that the current commodities have the advantage that they did not have in the same period last year.

First, the premise is the degree of global economic recovery. In the first quarter of last year, the global economy, after being de stocking in 2009, was the first wave of strong recovery under the booster of commercial activities. However, there was still a big gap between the economic level of the 2008 economic boom. In 2011, the developed economies in Europe and the United States launched a second wave of strong recovery under the new round of government stimulus in the second half of 2010, and the relevant institutions have returned to over 80% of the boom period by model calculation.

Secondly, the inflation environment continued to deepen in 2011, and the market outlook was still grim. In the two quarter of 2010, inflation began to grow. Due to the non Geopolitics in the Middle East and Northeast China, the peak of the consumption of gasoline in the summer and the abundant liquidity, the price of crude oil remains high, and the high price of crude oil will lead to an increase in the cost of production and has reached the consumption data. Food supply crisis and labor costs rise, huge liquidity and money supply stock, which leads to the deepening of global inflation environment. What we need to pay attention to here is that once the global economic slowdown is clear, Europe is expected to give up its austerity and expand again. The Federal Reserve, which was unwilling to tighten up its estimate, would once again "waterflood". After China's economic slowdown, it is estimated that the "stable economy" and "inflation control" balance will once again be tilted to the "stable economy" and the monetary tightening will be relaxed.

Finally, although the Japanese economy is showing the impact and losses after the earthquake, the "post disaster reconstruction" factor will not fail, but will be postponed. Once Japan's disaster reconstruction is launched in a large scale, its demand for crude oil, steel, PVC, copper and aluminum and other industrial products will rise sharply.

In short, under the premise that the global economy has not fallen into recession again, the twists and turns of economic recovery will lead to the adjustment of commodities in a phased and relatively large scale. However, in turn, the stimulus measures will also be introduced, so that liquidity will once again overflow and inflation will continue to deepen. Therefore, whether it is stagflation or vicious inflation, commodities will be difficult to turn to market driven by the investment demand and the rigid demand of hedge inflation.