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Probability Of Weak Running In Late Cotton

2011/4/2 15:53:00 73

In March 30th, the eight departments of the national development and Reform Commission announced the 2011 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan. The temporary storage and purchase plan will be implemented in 13 main cotton producing provinces (districts and cities), such as Xinjiang and Shandong, and the temporary storage price is 19800 yuan per ton from the standard lint to the warehouse. The execution time is from September 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012, that is, the new cotton sale period of 2011.

On the one hand, the temporary purchase and storage policy will be put into effect in the new year. It will exceed the inventory and production time of the general textile enterprises. On the other hand, it does not represent the market expectations or policy guidance of the country. The actual price of the market depends on all factors such as supply and demand. Therefore, it has no direct impact on cotton prices and textile cotton in the near future.

However, from the published cotton purchase and storage price of 19800 yuan / ton, relative to the present

futures

And spot prices are low.

According to the cost, it is only for farmers to maintain capital.

The state launched the policy of collecting and storing the seeds during the planting season to stabilize the farmers' confidence but not to expand the planting area.

Policy orientation is still mainly based on maintenance, besides worrying about cotton prices, and more concerned about food security.

The low price of the purchase and storage also makes the market worried that the state believes that the price will fall and stabilize the market price ahead of time. The general news is a long term bad news.

Compared to temporary storage

policy

The introduction of

Spin

At present, enterprises pay more attention to the reduction of export tax rebate rate.

Although no official confirmation has yet been made, some textile companies believe that the possibility of downgrading is greater.

Because from this year's government work report and some supporting policies, the state will focus more on adjusting the economic structure and development mode. Textile will be subject to more restrictions due to overcapacity and environmental pollution.

Once the tax rebate rate is lowered, and the cost of raw materials and labor will rise sharply, the appreciation of the renminbi will directly attack the entire textile industry. All of these have caused concerns to the textile mills to varying degrees. At present, cotton textile enterprises have fewer long-term lists, and the pmission of cotton prices downward has been somewhat resisted. Under the intensified policy of further tightening of interest rate in April, it is bound to suppress the market lint price.

In March 31st, USDA announced the next year's US cotton planting intention, with a sowing area forecast of 12 million 565 thousand and 500 acres, lower than the February forecast, causing a large number of buying into the market, making the ICE cotton rose sharply, and the far month contract took the lead in strong trading. From the current price difference, there must be a rational regression.

However, the impact on the domestic cotton market is relatively limited. At the same time, considering the arrival of Qingming long holidays, the market will not be too large, and domestic cotton will be different. The focus of the market will gradually shift from the previous gap to the stock and capital pressure. Therefore, the overall market atmosphere is relatively empty.