The Best Investment Strategy Is To Do Only Probability Events.

In the A share market, this emerging capital. market In making investment, the strategy is obviously more important than strategy. that Investment How do people choose their investment strategies? I personally think that the best investment strategy is very simple, that is to do only probability events.

　　 Strategy and Economics The greatest impact

There are many factors that affect the capital market trend, and the most important thing in the A share market is the internal policy and the macroeconomic trend. The strategic direction will directly affect the market trend and affect the macroeconomic trend.

The influence of macroeconomic policy on the economic trend is unparalleled by the rest of the world. In August 2008, the government's macro policy turned to adjust monetary policy and fiscal policy to enlarge liquidity. Although the index was not the lowest point at that time, I personally believed that the A share market could be invested. It turned out that my judgment was right, and soon the A share market had a strong rebound. Until now, the trend is strong in the whole world.

　 Do only probability events.

In fact, the most important thing to invest in the A share market is not to want to get rich overnight. It's hard to lose money if you only do the probability events. Many investors lose investment because they always think they will be different from others: they always hope that their luck is better than others, maybe one or two times will be more fortunate, but a failure will be wasted, because you are doing a small probability event!

What I call a big probability event is based on its careful study of macroeconomic policy and macro economy to determine whether the market trend is good or bad. In fact, there are two kinds of investment strategies: first, from top to bottom, from big to small, from coarse to fine; second, from bottom to top, based on investors' special understanding of a listed company. But all of this has to be based on the same premise that the market is in a steady and healthy way, and that the macro economy and macro environment are good.

When it is judged that the whole macro-economy is good, the macro strategy is correct and the market is better, investment should be made, otherwise, the market will be left. After all, when the overall environment is bad, such as 2008, no stock does not fall. Similarly, in every link of investment, we need to grasp this principle, choose the most beneficial industry from the policy, and choose the most beneficial stocks from the industry.

　 Timing and stock selection

Following the principle of large probability, it is found that timing is more important than stock selection.

In the same way, the treatment in different market environment is just like sky and underground. Last year, China's Ping an announcement announced that the market was extremely panicked and plunged. This year, when many companies announce the issuance of new schemes, they are very enthusiastic. Because the market environment is different, the probability is upward and everything is acceptable.

And when the probability of market turning is great, stop loss is very important. Many times, after a short period of adjustment, the market will rise again, indicating that the whole market is going to be good. However, once the probability of market downfall is great, we must learn to stop. Many investors failed to stop at the beginning of the 2008 crash, and then suffered heavy losses in successive drops. In fact, they failed to grasp the principle of big probability.

　　 Index innovation is high possibility.

The 3470 point is definitely not the highest point in the year, and it will definitely hit a new high.

This round of rally is supported by strong economic support. The macroeconomic recovery has been steady, and the performance of listed companies has also increased significantly. There is no reason not to go up. But this rally will not go all in one step, and may rise again after a slight pullback. The high point of this rally may occur at the turn of the one or two quarter of next year and the Shanghai Composite Index will reach 4000 points.

Personally, I think that from now on, the market will be very good in the two quarter of next year, and investors can safely invest in it. What they buy will basically get good returns. This is the judgement based on the principle of probability.