RMB Appreciation Next Year 5-6% Is The Acceptable Range For Chinese Export Enterprises.

China Securities Daily quoted Li Jian on Saturday, pointing out that the implementation of the US quantitative easing policy will lead to a sustained depreciation of the US dollar, and the future RMB will face greater appreciation pressure on the US dollar or a basket of currencies.

The real effective exchange rate of RMB may continue to rise, and appreciation is a medium and long-term trend.

However, he said that the one-off sharp adjustment of the RMB exchange rate would indeed have a great impact on the domestic economy, especially on exports. Therefore, the starting point of the exchange rate policy next year is still conducive to macroeconomic stability, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will be gradual and controllable.

"I don't think that the RMB appreciation will be much higher next year than that of this year. Some enterprises are saying that the maximum appreciation of the renminbi next year will be acceptable for 5%-6%," he said.

Since China resumed its reform in June of this year,

Li Jian also pointed out that some coastal enterprises have taken the lead to feel that exports are weakening. Some of the export growth will exceed 20% this year. Next year, it is possible to return to less than 20% or even a single digit growth. The main reason is whether there will be a new round of turbulence in the financial system of the developed countries, and whether there will be a bigger bubble.

In addition, he believes that the appreciation of the renminbi will make the price of imported goods cheaper, but the demand is related to the price of resources products. If the demand rises steadily, the price will also rise, which will offset the exchange rate factor. Imports will ultimately depend on demand. From the perspective of domestic demand, imports will remain relatively stable next year.