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Report Of The International Cotton Advisory Committee (September): Demand And Tight Stock Push Cotton Prices Up

2010/9/4 18:25:00 67

ICAC released the latest issue in September 1st: 2010/11, global

cotton

Output will rebound by 15%.

Spin

Cotton consumption will increase by 2%, so the global cotton production demand is expected to be roughly balanced at 25 million 100 thousand tons.

Global end stocks are expected to remain at 9 million 100 thousand tons, while the inventory consumption ratio will drop from 37% to 36%, the lowest since 1989/90.

Cotton prices can be pushed up by tight stock.

It is estimated that the output of US cotton 2010/11 will be 4 million tons, an increase of 52% over the previous year, which will promote the rebound of global cotton output.

China and India will account for most of the growth of all textile cotton.

Imports in 2010/11 are expected to continue to recover, increasing by 9% to 8 million 500 thousand tons.

This is mainly driven by imports from the mainland of China, and is expected to grow by 29% to 3 million 100 thousand tons.

The export of US cotton is expected to increase by 27% to 3 million 300 thousand tons due to the increase in output, and its global share of exports will increase from 34% to 39%.

ICAC

The price model predicts that the Cotlook A index will have an average of 89 cents per pound in 2010/11, with a probability of 95% between 76-106 cents / pound.

That means an increase of 15% over the 2009/10 estimate.

However, we must pay attention to the uncertainty existing in the bulk commodity market.

Initial inventory in 2010/11 will account for only 27% of global supply, down 35% from the previous year.

This decline indicates that cotton prices in 2010/11 will continue to be vulnerable to production expectations.

year

Output (10000 tons)

Consumption (10000 tons)

Export volume (10000 tons)

Ending inventory (10000 tons)

Cotlook A index (cents / lb)

2008/09 year

Two thousand three hundred and thirty-four